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Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. #608602
03/09/2020 06:03
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They have personnel decisions to make about several players, but for now I'll stick with a few IF position decisions for 2021:

FP says Thames has been working with Kevin Long alot. So far: he has a .205 BA and a measly 2 HR's, and been so disappointing that Davey puts LH hitting Cabrera at 1B some games. Team needs to decide if Thames is worth paying $4 million in 2021, or exercise the $1 million opt out clause and let him go. I'd boot him and pursue Marcell Ozuna in the offseason for 1B, altho I have no intel on his glove experience/abilities at the position. Or trade Eaton and slide Ozuna into RF or LF.

RE: 3B & 1B next season -- Cabrera (.233 ba - .309 obp) is an UFA after the season, so there's that.

With the financial uncertainties about next season, wont be surprised to see the Lerners be cautious with payroll, and avoid big dollar guys like Ozuna. He's killing it for Atl this season.


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Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #608604
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Hard call on payroll, it's a big risk in case fan attendance doesn't come back in 2021, on the other hand there will be bargains if the free agent market crashes.

Agree on letting Thames go or at least renegotiate him down to $2 million. I'd pick up Eaton's contract, even with him on the team we'll need to start adding outfielders for depth and for the future.

Hard to blow up a World Series team but in hindsight that would have been the best option, go young.

Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #608605
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No attendance this season, so to me the Lerners seem more hampered than other teams by a MASN-TV deal that is O's-favored--- have there been any news stories lately about this ?


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Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #608606
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Anibal Sanchez turns 37 in February. Comes back next year on a $12 million dollar salary, but Nats can cut him loose this Fall on buyout option for $2 million. Send him bye-byes.

Need 2 starters please.


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Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #608609
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They have Castro for another year and Garcia is doing well. They'll need to decide if Garcia is ready to be the everyday 2B. If so, does Castro play 3B, get dealt, or DH a lot?

Zimmerman will also have an effect on their decision making. Does he come back in 2021, and if he does, at his age, is he effective? Also, how effective will Ross be after such a long layoff?

They need some quality lefty hitters to balance the lineup. They have Eaton, Soto, and Thames, and Thames is having an unusually bad year. Remember when Cristian Guzman came here and had a horrible year? A couple of years later, he was an All-Star. Players regress to the mean. I would expect Eric Thames to be more like his career numbers next year. Will he do it in DC? If not, they had best find a decent lefty bat who can play 1B when Zimm doesn't. (Or do they try to teach Stevenson 1B?)

What can Carter Kieboom do? Is he really the superprospect, or have we seen what he's likely to do in the bigs?

Are Corbin and Sanchez the pitchers they were in 2019, or more like they are in 2020?

I'd look into Lance Lynn and I'd call the Angels about Bundy. And, as always, they will need to find bullpen upgrades.

There are some interesting players available. Here is a list of 2020-21 free agents:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/2020-21-mlb-free-agents.html


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Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #608613
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Sign Robbie Ray, who started in the Nats' organization?


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Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #608625
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Originally Posted by SilverFox1
No attendance this season, so to me the Lerners seem more hampered than other teams by a MASN-TV deal that is O's-favored--- have there been any news stories lately about this ?


Nothing recent that I've seen on the MASN case, last update was looking good for the Nats but I don't think that money has changed hands.

Another revenue stream for the Nats will be the new sportsbook. They were going to build it this year but I don't know the current status. So far just the one at the Capitol One Center is open.

Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #608626
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Originally Posted by SilverFox1
Anibal Sanchez turns 37 in February. Comes back next year on a $12 million dollar salary, but Nats can cut him loose this Fall on buyout option for $2 million. Send him bye-byes.

Need 2 starters please.



Right, need two starters and one better be an ace. Scherzer is still very good but not a Cy Young candidate and Strasburg remains injury prone.

Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: TBP] #608627
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Originally Posted by TBP
They have Castro for another year and Garcia is doing well. They'll need to decide if Garcia is ready to be the everyday 2B. If so, does Castro play 3B, get dealt, or DH a lot?

Zimmerman will also have an effect on their decision making. Does he come back in 2021, and if he does, at his age, is he effective? Also, how effective will Ross be after such a long layoff?

They need some quality lefty hitters to balance the lineup. They have Eaton, Soto, and Thames, and Thames is having an unusually bad year. Remember when Cristian Guzman came here and had a horrible year? A couple of years later, he was an All-Star. Players regress to the mean. I would expect Eric Thames to be more like his career numbers next year. Will he do it in DC? If not, they had best find a decent lefty bat who can play 1B when Zimm doesn't. (Or do they try to teach Stevenson 1B?)

What can Carter Kieboom do? Is he really the superprospect, or have we seen what he's likely to do in the bigs?

Are Corbin and Sanchez the pitchers they were in 2019, or more like they are in 2020?

I'd look into Lance Lynn and I'd call the Angels about Bundy. And, as always, they will need to find bullpen upgrades.

There are some interesting players available. Here is a list of 2020-21 free agents:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/2020-21-mlb-free-agents.html


I have low expectations for Thames or Zimmerman. Hopefully Garcia and Kieboom will continue to develop, otherwise we are in real trouble. Lots of turnover coming, we need Rizzo to find the right bunch of free agents because I think we are going to have to buy the next bunch instead of develop them.

Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: PowerBoater69] #608630
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Originally Posted by PowerBoater69
Originally Posted by TBP
They have Castro for another year and Garcia is doing well. They'll need to decide if Garcia is ready to be the everyday 2B. If so, does Castro play 3B, get dealt, or DH a lot?

Zimmerman will also have an effect on their decision making. Does he come back in 2021, and if he does, at his age, is he effective? Also, how effective will Ross be after such a long layoff?

They need some quality lefty hitters to balance the lineup. They have Eaton, Soto, and Thames, and Thames is having an unusually bad year. Remember when Cristian Guzman came here and had a horrible year? A couple of years later, he was an All-Star. Players regress to the mean. I would expect Eric Thames to be more like his career numbers next year. Will he do it in DC? If not, they had best find a decent lefty bat who can play 1B when Zimm doesn't. (Or do they try to teach Stevenson 1B?)

What can Carter Kieboom do? Is he really the superprospect, or have we seen what he's likely to do in the bigs?

Are Corbin and Sanchez the pitchers they were in 2019, or more like they are in 2020?

I'd look into Lance Lynn and I'd call the Angels about Bundy. And, as always, they will need to find bullpen upgrades.

There are some interesting players available. Here is a list of 2020-21 free agents:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/2020-21-mlb-free-agents.html


I have low expectations for Thames or Zimmerman. Hopefully Garcia and Kieboom will continue to develop, otherwise we are in real trouble. Lots of turnover coming, we need Rizzo to find the right bunch of free agents because I think we are going to have to buy the next bunch instead of develop them.


Agree on Thames and Zimmerman, both unreliable. And re: Kieboom: Boswell hears that Trea Turner is like Rendon: likes the DC area but doesn't love it either. Turner's a UFA after the '22 season, so if he bolts it's worth keeping Kieboom around to see if he develops, or if Castro leaves after '21 season.


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Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #608632
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Interesting thought about Turner maybe leaving, I can't remember the Nats ever trading a homegrown star player before they walk when they hit free agency.

Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #608649
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Wish I could remember where I read it. Earlier this week Doolittle talked about still throwing at 89-90 mph, and claimed he wasnt worried about it, because he can make adjustments. In the same article, Martinez was quoted as saying "Oh he has GOT to get his FB back up to 94". Interesting.


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Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #608799
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Q: Nats free agents
Looking ahead to next year after this fiasco of a season, which of the Nats free agents should they attempt to keep?

A: Thomas Boswell
Doolittle, who'll be cheap because of age, injury history.

Asdrubal Cabrera: Very versatile, good teammate, insurance policy at 1st-2d-3d-DH and he's found a lte-career home in DC. He's had a poor year. Again, a cheap but probably decent bench piece that lets you spend elsewhere.

Suzuki, for one more year with Gomes, unless you think you have a shot at signing free agent JT Realmuto. Nobody knows what the FA market will look like --salaries could be down a LOT. And which team's can afford them?

I'll mull the rest and get back to you.

— SEP 08, 2020 11:59 AM


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Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #609193
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Per Spotrac: 2019 payroll -- $172 mill. The 2021 payroll as of now -- $141 million on only 11 players. The figures do not include expiring contracts (notably Suzuki, Zimm + others), Arb or Pre-Arb contracts that are due up (the most prominent being Trea, Soto, Rainey, & Robles). And Nats are dedicating 59% of next year's payroll as of now to 3 players: Scherzer, Corbin, & Strasburg. Wow).

Team has options this offseason of up to $32.5 million on these guys: $12 mill on Sanchez, $10.5 mill on Eaton, $4 mill on Thames, and $6 mill on Kendricks. The first 3 are in real danger, and if Rizzo buys a big bat Kendrick could be in danger too, altho I love the guy and would hate seeing him go.



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Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #609196
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Q: Luis García
Is he the real deal, or does he need "more seasoning" in the minors, as I keep reading online? .381 average, .766 OPS in 107 at bats, and 20 years old. Love the chats. Thanks, Tom in 316 (whenever fans can return to games)

A: Thomas Boswell
There's very little not to like about Garcia, especially his self-confidence, upbeat nature and desire to learn from older players. That plus exceptional hand-eye coordination, good hands, a SS-quality arm, years of hard work at baseball growing up and, at 20, a 6-foot-2, 211-pound frame certainly speak well for his history.

But "seasoning" is the right word --and a tough question.

He's hitting .372 with a .921 OPS vs RH pitching, but only .172 with a .345 OPS versus LHers. Of course, he did hit a game-winning 427-foot home run against a lefty --if I remember correctly-- who laid in a fastball on 0-0 in a bunt situation in the 10th inning last week.

Also, he has five errors. Not a lot. But with a prospect this good, you don't want to do anything that stunts his eventual development. You don't want him to STILL has a .336 on-base percentage --because of low walks and trouble with lefties-- when he's 25. Some players, by sticking in the majors, simply lock in their weaknesses. I always wondered if that happen to Jason Heyward. He got the big fre agent deal and is a wonderful OFer, but he never became the player than most thought he would become --a great one.

The Nats want Garcvia to get some at bats in the Dominican Republic this winter and work on some things. My guess is that Luis is going to have to improve while playing at the MLB level. He just seems too good to keep down for very long. What if he gets hurt in AAA? Then you feel like an idiot. Or develops bad hitting habits in the minors? Wouldn't you rather have him in the majors with Kevin Long (hitting coach) and Juan Soto studying every swing and helping him?

It may get crowded at 2d and 3rd base next season with Garcia, Kieboom (who's struggling) and Starlin Castro whom the Nats se as a first-rate 2d or 3rd baseman and team leader. Castro is only signed through '21, so that may work itself out by '22. But if Garcia started '21 in the minors for 100-to-200 ABs of polishing, you could rationalize it.

Tough call. I thnk he probably belongs in the majors from Day One next year. But, of course, part of that depends on his work this winter and perhaps next spring, too. Long-term, he looks like a lock --and we can se why the Nats refused to trade him --and everybody asked for him.

Now, next question, when will Carter Kieboom and Victor Robles, who should both be very good players --with Robles probably an All-Star a couple of times-- "turn into themselves?"

— SEP 21, 2020 12:38 PM

Q: Carter Kieboom
Boz, Even though there is a lot to talk about this Monday, I was wondering if Carter Kieboom has shown enough to keep him in the Nats plan for 2021. At this point he seems lost to me. Any thoughts as to whether it is too soon to give up on him? Thanks.

A: Thomas Boswell
Nobody is going to give up on Carter Kieboom any time soon --and by that I means for YEARS. He's got "long MLB career" written all over him. He's pressing. A 162-game season would do hima world of good, rather than a sprint season where a bad start works on your nerves. He could conceivably play another half-season in AAA to get squared away. But you are looking for the first spot to bring him back up. This is a 25-plus homer third baseman. I know he doesn't look like that now. He looks lost. Here's a tip: Everybody looks exactly the same when they are lost!

I remember him turning around two Verlander fastballs for long homers to left in spring training in '19. That guy will be back. Great work ethic, etc.

One very negative note: You will have a hard time finding any young player who has ever had just ONE extra-0base hit in 119 plate appearances, no matter what the extenuating circumstance were. You can only say "try easier" so many times. Ultimately, the player has to relax and let his own talent out.

Note: It's a small sample size, just the equivalent of 27.74 full games. But Kieboom is averaging 2.42 assists per nine innings at third base. This era, with all the strikeouts, makes it hard for a 3rd baseman to get as many assists --which are an excellent indicator of range-- as players in earlier times, like the great Mike Schmidt, for example. In his career, Mike averaged 2.40 assist per 9 innings at 3rd in his career. I know, I know --Kieboom's 27.74 games may mean nothing. But he only has three errors and, if we're going to be candid about the bad stuff in his season, then we should mention what might be positive, too.

— SEP 21, 2020 12:51 PM

Q: Nats rookies evaluation
Now that we’ve seen significant playing time for Nats rookies, what is your evaluation of them? Any special performers or surprises? Seem as if Kieboom was so overhyped that hard now challenging to fairly evaluate his inconsistent performance. How do you judge his odds of living up to the perhaps unrealistic expectations?

A: Thomas Boswell
My two cents: Stop worrying about Kieboom and focus on the free agent bats that ARE available --none of them third basemen. Look for corner OFers or 1st basemen.

Anthony Rizzo, despite hitting .212 with .718, will be a glamor free agent name. He may suck attention away from others and give the Nats an opening. The huge "get" would be catcher J.T. Realmuto (.863 OPS) but the price might be prohibitive.

OF Nick Castellanos, 28, who's only hitting .230 but with 13 homers and an .806 OPS might be a very good fit --not insanely expensive, but a very good, still young player who'd fit a need. Will Castellanos want to opt out of his current deal that has 3 more years and $46M on it, with a mutual option after that? Tough call. In a pandemic, maybe you just sit tight with the deal you have. Over the last 5 yrs, he's slashed .282/.334/.503 with 28 homers and 91 RBI per 162 games. And he's a good RFer. Not a big STAR, but a RH bat to put behind Turner and Soto. The Nats could afford him because, presumably, you would not bring back Adam Eaton who made $9.5M this year. If Castellanos is not an option --yes, he may be "wishful thinking"-- I think Eaton still has another good year left in him. (Nats have a $1.5M buy out with Adam and a $10.5M team option which, I assume, is considerably too rich after his poor year. But you can always tear up the deal you have and work out a new one. Tough call because we all saw what Eaton, still "only" 31, could do last year.

— SEP 21, 2020 1:06 PM


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Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #609200
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Nobody is going to give up on Carter Kieboom any time soon --and by that I means for YEARS.


Kieboom just turned 23, which is still at the starting point of a typical career arc. We should expect a big jump forward next year and then by 2022 Carter should be entering his prime years. So I agree with Boz that it is too early to start judging Kieboom but "YEARS" is an over statement.

Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #609203
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That looked painful, Kieboom might be done for the season, hopefully nothing more than a bad bruise.

I've said this many times, the Nats should mandate that our batters wear every pad allowed by MLB. Too many preventable injuries.

Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: PowerBoater69] #609206
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Originally Posted by PowerBoater69
Quote
Nobody is going to give up on Carter Kieboom any time soon --and by that I means for YEARS.


Kieboom just turned 23, which is still at the starting point of a typical career arc. We should expect a big jump forward next year and then by 2022 Carter should be entering his prime years. So I agree with Boz that it is too early to start judging Kieboom but "YEARS" is an over statement.


The dilemna The Nats have is what to do with the IF next season. It'll be a game of musical chairs, and either Castro, Kieboom, or Garcia are gonna get left standing. Unless you trade Castro if the return makes sense.


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Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #609208
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Lets hope we have an issue of one too many infielders. Take those three and see which two earn the spots next spring.

Have you seen what is going on with the draft picks? There are rumors that MLB is not going to use the standard rule for draft positions for next year. As of now the Nats would be the biggest losers in that scenario as we have fallen the most spots.

Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #609213
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This is from Jeff Passan at 954am, you heard anything since then ?
:
@JeffPassan
Some news in 20 Questions: The 2021 draft order is highly likely to be based on a team's 2020 record, a source familiar with MLB's thinking told ESPN:

https://es.pn/3iSThVL

If the season ended today, top 5 would be:

1) Pittsburgh
2) Texas
3) Boston
4) Arizona
5) Washington


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Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #609227
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Nope, I was working on two day old info, that is great news.

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Boswell thinks The Nats could go after Realmuto. With Gomes having a year left on his deal and a re-signed Suzuki for 2021, that would take care of that position. Unless they wanna move Gomes to 1B and go after JTR for catcher. That dude is gonna have alot of bidders and the price could skyrocket. Have they announced if the DH will be back in the NL next season?


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Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #609290
24/09/2020 17:48
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Kendrick, Cabrera, Holt, and Harrison (sounds like a DC law firm) are all free agents after this season. I think they need to re-sign at least one.

The team has Castro, Garcia, and Turner. If Zimm's back, he plays first base. He no longer plays every day. Thames is a free agent. They'll need a backup 1B plus a utility man (Adrian Sanchez/)

Re-sign Eaton? Or use Taylor, Stevenson, and Hernandez? Not re-signing Eaton could save some money that could be redirected elsewhere (Realmuto? Robbie Ray?), but is it worth it?

Here is the full free agent list for 2020-2021:


https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/09/2020-21-mlb-free-agents.html


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Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #609292
24/09/2020 17:56
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First two things Rizzo needs to know are whether there will be a DH and then what the budget will be. Hopefully Lerner authorizes a payroll up close to the salary cap, although I would understand if that doesn't happen due to the unknown status of fans in the ballpark for next season. That list of names has some guys that I'd like to see back but only after the big fish are in the boat.

Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #609295
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And what the roster size will be.


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Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: PowerBoater69] #609318
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Originally Posted by PowerBoater69
Nope, I was working on two day old info, that is great news.


Bo Porter saying he thinks Nats will pursue Realmuto BUT will not pursue too hard....sez catchers tend to fade starting in their early 30's, and JRT will command alot of cash And alot of years on his deal, and the bidding will go high. We'll see.

Meanwhile, Kendrick says he's unsure about coming back in '21. The guy's 37 and he's put up with so many injuries since coming here -- cant blame the guy if he's sick of it.


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Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #609328
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I was looking at Realmuto's stats, his OPS has increased every single season he's played, which obviously can't last but I see that as a sign that he has a number of good seasons left to go. Question is whether we'd want him as our starting catcher. If a guy is hitting well and the team is spending a ton of money why put him in a position where injuries are more likely.

Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #609347
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I'd like to see them pursue Ozuna if they have to choose one. C position is set if they bring back Suzuki on a cheap deal, and Ozuna will prob have better longevity than JTR. But I'd be happy with either. But Ozuna may be cost prohibitive, too


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Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #609357
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Whoa -- Bo Porter thinks Suzuki may be done in DC. Thinks Nats will instead pursue a LH hitting catcher to complement Gomes


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Re: Offseason Decisions: Who to keep, who to add, etc. [Re: SilverFox1] #609361
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Originally Posted by SilverFox1
Whoa -- Bo Porter thinks Suzuki may be done in DC. Thinks Nats will instead pursue a LH hitting catcher to complement Gomes


I agree, I'm a Kurt Suzuki fan, but it is time for the Nats to get a whole lot younger.

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